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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.